CPHC在報文中表示霍涅有可能跨線 但原則上還是認定在跨線前消散機率較大 It should be noted that Hone or its remnants could become involved with a large mid- to upper-level low near the International Dateline at about 120 h, with the global models showing a surface low in the area. Currently, it is not clear whether if this low is Hone or a new formation, and until there is more clarity, the forecast continues to show Hone dissipating by this time. 主要參考資料是GFS https://i.meee.com.tw/XizQYiD.png EC似乎不支持這個系統了 https://i.meee.com.tw/kOQUI94.png 向日葵九號已經可以看到他了 基本上還是有對流在維持結構 https://i.meee.com.tw/xaZy70e.jpg 霍涅所在的地區風切仍然很大 但看起來再撐一陣子沒被切死就還好了 https://i.meee.com.tw/HfkDjZR.png 同樣地，再撐一陣子就能到暖水區了 https://i.meee.com.tw/1RhPvQU.png 如果真的撐過去了，估計又會活過來了 感覺是可以觀察的系統 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.137.131.146 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1724819547.A.70D.html